Tropical forecast can't settle on a solution

Every now and again along comes a tropical event which confounds and confuses much of today's state of the art computer forecast modeling. This area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula is just such an event. For the last three days the best forecasting apparatus in the world has struggled to get a grip on where this little low will go and what it will be when it gets there.

The majority of models pointed towards the north suggesting the Tropical low would be drawn that direction by a lingering trough of low pressure along the U.S. southern Gulf coast and be pushed away from Texas by upper level high pressure. But, some models plotted a different solution shoving the tropical low west with the prevailing winds; a split decision.

The last 72 hours or so those same models have flipped and flopped, some every 24hours and now every 12 hours.

It is safe to say the uncertainty is frustrating! This tropical low may or may not become better organized into a coherent tropical event; instead it might just stretch out over the western Gulf of Mexico and generate rain over the Alabama coast. Or it might just drift west and kick up rain over Mexico. The models cannot rule out it becoming a tropical storm but nothing amongst the litany of guesses suggests this will become a hurricane.

The time frame for the tropical low to move, to either the Gulf coast near Mississippi or west into Mexico, is now through Sunday.

Stay tuned as many meteorological minds expect the forecast to gel once the low moves away from the Yucatan and out over the Gulf. The safest thing to say is that everyone along the Gulf coast from Mexico to Florida needs to keep an eye on this potential storm.