Tropical trouble tracking toward Tallahassee

The latest tropical threat to the Gulf Coast region is an area of low pressure in the northwest Caribbean, south of Cuba. This area of low pressure is expected to become better organized and strengthen around a core circulation over the next 48hrs. It is moving to the northwest at 10-15mph.

As the low builds it should start to track north through the straights between Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula. The forecast track is reinforced by low pressure moving in over the northern Gulf of Mexico helping to draw the potential storm northward. There is still a slight chance the tropical low could lurch west over Central America and southern Mexico before it has a chance to move north but the majority of forecast models track the low north toward Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

High pressure will continue to slide west over Texas providing a shield to prevent the potential storm from coming near the Rio Grande Valley.

Timing is everything, if it moves north, the tropical low should threaten the Gulf coast between Louisiana and Florida as a tropical storm by Sunday.