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      Tropical Update: TD 5 Now Erin and Tracking Low in Caribbean

      The next named storm of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season has emerged.

      The National Hurricane Center has upgraded depression 5 to Tropical Storm Erin.

      Erin is currently churning in the southeastern Atlantic just off the Cape Verde Islands, moving WNW at 16 mph.

      The storm is still a good 3,500 miles from the east coast of the U.S. Meantime, a broad area of low pressure we TMre watching closely in the Caribbean Sea now has less of a chance of becoming a named storm before bringing rain to Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula.

      The low pressure area and associated showers and storms have becoming less organized over the past few hours.

      The consensus of the majority of current computer models is for the system to move into the southern Gulf of Mexico within the next 48 hours.

      At that point, conditions will be favorable for development into a tropical system.

      It is also believed it will eventually move north toward the southern Gulf states between Louisiana and Florida.

      A lower amount of forecast models take the system through the Bay of Campeche and into central Mexico.

      It should be noted that a broad ridge of high pressure is expected to remain over the Rio Grande Valley and save us from major direct impacts.

      Should the system become better organized, it will be tropical depression 6, and eventually Tropical Storm Fernando. Stay with the 24/7 weather team for the latest on the tropics.